Next Week in China: 8-12 December 2025

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Major Data Releases:

8 December: China to report November trade balance
8 December: China to report November import and export year-on-year growth rates
10 December: China to report November M0, M1 and M2 money supply growth rates
10 December: China to report November Producer Price Index (PPI)
10 December: China to report November Consumer Price Index (CPI)
10 December: China to report November total social financing (TSF)
10 December: China to report November new renminbi loans

Next week marks a return to a more typical pace for economic data releases, with seven key indicators lined up in mainland China.

On the external front, November exports are expected to rebound modestly, with growth likely around 3 per cent year-on-year. This improvement is supported by continued overseas restocking and a temporary recovery in global manufacturing activity. High-frequency data reinforce this view: the daily export demand index for November showed a clear year-on-year improvement versus October, while new export orders under the Purchasing Managers’ Index climbed from 45.9 per cent in October to 47.6 per cent in November, suggesting resilient external demand.

On the consumer side, CPI dynamics suggest a mild rebound from October’s 0.2 per cent inflation. Food prices rose in November, driven by seasonal factors and weather disruptions. Vegetable prices surged 10.1 per cent month-on-month, the steepest increase for this period in recent years amid cold waves and production area transitions. Fruit prices firmed up while pork prices continued to fall. With the drag from carry-over effects easing to zero, headline inflation may recover to around 0.9 per cent year-on-year – if so, this would be the fastest price increase since 2023.

For PPI, the picture is more subdued. While crude oil prices edged higher and non-ferrous metals such as aluminum and copper climbed month-on-month, most industrial products weakened. Glass prices fell sharply by 7.1 per cent, and coking coal and coke returned to negative growth after a brief respite. Combined with deeper base effects, November PPI is likely to register a further year-on-year decline.

Credit and liquidity indicators remain steady but point to underlying softness in demand from the real economy. New RMB loans for November are estimated at roughly RMB 600 billion (USD 84.8 billion), above last year’s level, while aggregate financing may reach RMB 2.33 trillion (USD 325 billion). Growth in outstanding loans and aggregate financing is expected to hold at 6.5 per cent and 8.5 per cent, respectively, with M2 growth ticking up to 8.4 per cent. Government bond issuance slowed moderately to about RMB 1.1 trillion (USD 155.6 billion), lower than a year ago. Financing appetite remains weak despite continued policy support, and the impact of stimulus measures deployed earlier in the year is only beginning to feed into infrastructure and key projects — a trend likely to strengthen by early 2026.

On equities, performance was muted over the previous week. As of Thursday, 27 November, the MSCI China Index edged up 0.32 per cent. The Shanghai Composite slipped by 0.33 per cent, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext indices posted gains of 0.17 per cent and 0.49 per cent, respectively. Large-cap names outperformed, with growth stocks maintaining a slight lead over value peers.

This piece has been co-produced with Yiyi Capital Limited in Hong Kong, a China specialist and a part of a global financial services group.