{"id":9123,"date":"2023-10-12T07:10:00","date_gmt":"2023-10-12T05:10:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/det-foles-som-den-20-november-1985\/"},"modified":"2023-10-12T08:50:40","modified_gmt":"2023-10-12T06:50:40","slug":"det-foles-som-den-20-november-1985","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/det-foles-som-den-20-november-1985\/","title":{"rendered":"Det f\u00f8les som den 20. november 1985"},"content":{"rendered":"

Der er ingen tvivl om, at den globale \u00f8konomi ikke ligefrem sprudler af fremdrift, og det kan stresse aktieinvestorer. Specielt i en finansverden der vender tilbage til den naturlighed, at likviditet har en pris.<\/p>\n

\"Det

Kilde: FRED, Fed St. Louis, USA<\/p><\/div>\n

Lige nu er stresspuklen endnu mere udpr\u00e6get i obligationsmarkederne, hvor frustrationen er inflationen, der ikke slipper taget i de vestlige \u00f8konomier. Det har presset renterne yderligere op, som grafik et viser, men omvendt viser grafik to, at kreditmarkedet ikke er presset endnu.<\/p>\n

Jeg betragter de seneste par ugers kursfald i obligationsmarkederne som en ret sen reaktion i denne cyklus, specielt uden for Europa. Det er fortsat min vurdering, at flertallet af obligationsinvestorer snart vil begynde at se frem til livet efter h\u00f8jinflationen, for en tid i det mindste.<\/p>\n

\"Det

Kilde: FRED, Fed St. Louis, USA<\/p><\/div>\n

Det \u00e6ndrer ikke ved, at investorer skal s\u00f8ge mere for at finde gode investeringsmuligheder, og m\u00e5ske s\u00e5gar arbejde mentalt med, hvordan man opfatter udviklinger. Verdensbankens seneste vurdering af den asiatiske \u00f8konomi mener jeg er et godt eksempel. Man nedvurderede v\u00e6kstudsigterne for hele \u00d8stasien til 4,5 pct. bnp-v\u00e6kst i \u00e5r. Verdensbanken gav det kommentaren, at det er de laveste v\u00e6kstudsigter for regionen gennem mere end 50 \u00e5r \u2013 skal man som investor blive endnu mere stresset af det?<\/p>\n

Nej, for betragtningen er endimensionel, og delvist blot en konstatering. N\u00e5r den globale v\u00e6kst er under pres, som den er nu, s\u00e5 m\u00e6rkes det overalt, inklusive i Asien. Humlen er, at den asiatiske v\u00e6kst trods alt er mere attraktiv end andre steder, men endnu vigtigere, den \u00e6ndrer ogs\u00e5 karakter. Et fantastisk eksempel er iv\u00e6rks\u00e6tteri, som for f\u00e5 \u00e5rtier siden meget var pr\u00e6get af n\u00f8dvendighed, m\u00e5ske var den eneste indt\u00e6gtskilde at s\u00e6lge street food til turister. I dag oprinder syd\u00f8stasiatisk iv\u00e6rks\u00e6tteri meget mere fra husholdninger med opsparet kapital, der kommer med id\u00e9er og etablerer sm\u00e5 virksomheder, der vokser. Det er blot et eksempel p\u00e5, hvorledes den \u00f8konomiske v\u00e6kst \u00e6ndrer karakter, og dermed bliver mere selvforst\u00e6rkende og indt\u00e6gtsskabende p\u00e5 en anden kvalitativ m\u00e5de. For investorer er dette en utrolig vigtig udvikling fordi mulighederne ser anderledes ud end tidligere.<\/p>\n

Som stressterapi for investorer kan det f.eks. ogs\u00e5 hj\u00e6lpe at besk\u00e6ftige sig med megatrends, da de giver en kompasretning n\u00e5r farvandet bliver uroligt.<\/p>\n

For nyligt havde jeg en samtale om den globale kapitalbev\u00e6gelse ind i gr\u00f8n energi frem til 2050, som er den st\u00f8rste trend jeg nogensinde har kunnet pege p\u00e5 i finansmarkedet. Den bedste vurdering, som jeg har er, at uanset hvor mange penge og nye id\u00e9er, der fremskaffes, s\u00e5 n\u00e5s FN\u2019s klimam\u00e5l ikke. Det virker m\u00e5ske umiddelbart bekymrende, men der kommer dog uendeligt mange gode id\u00e9er og tiltag, hvilket er den gode nyhed, og de vil p\u00e5virke positivt. Men desuden beskriver det samtidigt en gigantisk investeringsb\u00f8lge man, som investor, kan v\u00e6lge blot at betragte, eller at deltage aktivt i.<\/p>\n

Denne gr\u00f8nne b\u00f8lge minder mig om en anden b\u00f8lge, der blev sat i gang den 20. november 1985. Det var dagen for den officielle lancering af Microsofts Windows software. Jeg betragter det som et produkt, der over tid \u00e6ndrede den globale hverdag, skabte de st\u00f8rste virksomheder og sektorer i hele verden. Den samme f\u00f8lelse har jeg med den gr\u00f8nne energiteknologib\u00f8lge, som f\u00f8rst lige er kommet i gang.<\/p>\n

N\u00e5r jeg n\u00e6vner en gr\u00f8n teknologib\u00f8lge, s\u00e5 t\u00e6nker jeg prim\u00e6rt p\u00e5 \u201dgreen deep tech\u201d og ikke p\u00e5 f.eks. investeringer i vindm\u00f8ller. Som et eksempel, har mit eget firma gennem en \u00e5rr\u00e6kke v\u00e6ret involveret i investeringer ind i CO2 negativ olieproduktion, hvilket har bragt os videre til andre muligheder. Den n\u00e6ste mulighed i r\u00e6kken er eventuelt produktion af CO2 negativt flybr\u00e6ndstof, hvilket vil v\u00e6re et k\u00e6mpe fremskridt, og det er virkelig en sp\u00e6ndende verden.<\/p>\n

Investorer, der allerede allokerer ekstra tid til mere forst\u00e5else af gr\u00f8n deep tech forventer jeg ogs\u00e5 vil h\u00f8ste en yderligere gevinst fra en anden front. I \u00f8jeblikket er inflationen en stressfaktor, men p\u00e5 et tidspunkt aftager inflationen. Dog vender den tilbage i gr\u00f8n form, fordi gr\u00f8nne forbrugsafgifter er uundg\u00e5elige, det er blot et sp\u00f8rgsm\u00e5l om tid inden de kommer. Jeg ligestiller de afgifter, der kommer, med en gr\u00f8n moms, hvilket skaber en ny form for inflation. I idealfaldet vil den fremtidige gr\u00f8nne moms blive \u00f8rem\u00e6rket til den gr\u00f8nne investeringsb\u00f8lge, men tiden vil vise om det g\u00e5r s\u00e5ledes.<\/p>\n

Den kommende gr\u00f8nne inflation vil stresse finansmarkederne igen, for den gr\u00f8nne afgift, eller moms, forventer jeg vil stige hvert eneste \u00e5r. \u00c9n m\u00e5de, hvorved investorerne kan modvirke den negative effekt fra den gr\u00f8nne inflation er gennem investeringer, der profiterer fra gr\u00f8nne afgifter.<\/p>\n

Hvis man tr\u00e6der et skridt tilbage fra den \u00f8jeblikkelige surhed i finansmarkederne, s\u00e5 findes der en m\u00e6ngde sp\u00e6ndende investeringsmuligheder. Det er eventuelt i nye geografiske omr\u00e5der, men ganske givet i nye sektorer, og jeg kan bekr\u00e6fte, at det kr\u00e6ver en del tid og energi at tage den rejse. Det er omvendt en af de mange sp\u00e6ndende aspekter ved at v\u00e6re en aktiv investor, og jeg er helt overbevist om, at verden st\u00e5r overfor en ny gigantisk investerings- og teknologib\u00f8lge, ligesom tilbage i november 1985.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Investorer virker i tiltagende grad stressede, hvilket afspejles i et mere nerv\u00f8st finansmarked verden rundt, men find roen i mega-trends, det hj\u00e6lper.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":9124,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[2],"tags":[7,5],"yoast_head":"\nDet f\u00f8les som den 20. november 1985 - Lundgreens Investor Insights DK<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Investorer virker i tiltagende grad stressede, hvilket afspejles i et mere nerv\u00f8st finansmarked verden rundt, men find roen i mega-trends, det hj\u00e6lper.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/det-foles-som-den-20-november-1985\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Det f\u00f8les som den 20. november 1985 - 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