{"id":9113,"date":"2023-05-24T07:05:00","date_gmt":"2023-05-24T05:05:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/?p=9113"},"modified":"2023-05-24T07:46:48","modified_gmt":"2023-05-24T05:46:48","slug":"praesident-lulas-pres-pa-centralbanken-kan-bremse-landets-vaekst","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/praesident-lulas-pres-pa-centralbanken-kan-bremse-landets-vaekst\/","title":{"rendered":"Pr\u00e6sident Lulas pres p\u00e5 centralbanken kan bremse landets v\u00e6kst"},"content":{"rendered":"

Den brasilianske pr\u00e6sident Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva har angrebet Banco Central do Brasil’s (BCB) uafh\u00e6ngighed og autonomi p\u00e5 baggrund af den vedvarende h\u00f8je inflation. Lula sagde, at det nuv\u00e6rende niveau for Brasiliens toneangivende rentesats p\u00e5 13,75 procent var for h\u00f8jt og inflationsm\u00e5let p\u00e5 3,25 procent for lavt, hvilket antyder et misforhold i pengepolitikken.<\/p>\n

Den ledende centralbankrente bestemmes af the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) (den pengepolitiske komit\u00e9), som i \u00f8jeblikket ledes af BCB’s centralbankdirekt\u00f8r Roberto Campos Neto, der er udpeget af Lulas forg\u00e6nger Jair Bolsonaro. Inflationsm\u00e5lene fasts\u00e6ttes af the National Monetary Council (CMN) (det nationale monet\u00e6re r\u00e5d), som ud over Campos Neto selv best\u00e5r af finansminister Fernando Haddad og planl\u00e6gningsminister Simone Tebet.<\/p>\n

Lulas verbale angreb p\u00e5 Neto og centralbanken f\u00f8rte til bekymring om den pengepolitiske autonomi, hvilket bidrog til den eksisterende usikkerhed om den nye regerings finanspolitik og udl\u00f8ste en negativ reaktion fra investorerne.<\/p>\n

Forventningerne til inflationen er blevet opjusteret for 2023, 2024 og 2025, da markedsakt\u00f8rerne forventer, at forbrugerpriserne vil stige endnu hurtigere. Copom signalerede s\u00e5gar p\u00e5 sit seneste m\u00f8de, at det m\u00e5ske ikke vil v\u00e6re muligt at reducere rentesatserne i 2023.<\/p>\n

Som alle andre lande tyede Brasilien, under COVID-19-pandemien, til en ekspansiv finans- og pengepolitik for at st\u00f8tte \u00f8konomien, herunder ogs\u00e5 de mest s\u00e5rbare husholdninger. De finanspolitiske reformer, som Brasiliens regering gennemf\u00f8rte fra 2017 til 2019, fik BCB til at s\u00e6nke renten f\u00f8r COVID-19-krisen br\u00f8d ud. Faktisk var den toneangivende rente historisk lav: 4,5 procent i januar 2020 og den n\u00e5ede ned p\u00e5 2,0 procent i august samme \u00e5r. Takket v\u00e6re tidligere perioder med h\u00f8j inflation havde BCB v\u00e6ret hurtig til at diagnosticere det inflation\u00e6re globale milj\u00f8 og var en af de f\u00f8rste centralbanker i verden til at stramme sin pengepolitik.<\/p>\n

Selic, udl\u00e5nsrenten hos Brasiliens centralbank, steg kraftigt fra 2 procent til 13,75 procent mellem februar 2021 og august 2022. I denne periode toppede den nuv\u00e6rende inflation ved 12,13 procent i april 2022 og er siden faldet til 5,6 procent i februar 2023, om end den stadig ligger et godt stykke over m\u00e5let p\u00e5 3,25 procent.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

BCB’s uafh\u00e6ngighed truet<\/h3>\n

Selv om der i \u00f8jeblikket ikke er plads til en ekspansiv politik p\u00e5 grund af inflationspresset, insisterer Lula og Arbejderpartiet p\u00e5 at skabe \u00f8konomisk v\u00e6kst gennem offentlige investeringer og en st\u00e6rk statslig indgriben i Brasiliens \u00f8konomi. Det nuv\u00e6rende makro\u00f8konomiske scenarie er imidlertid anderledes end i Lulas to tidligere pr\u00e6sidentperioder. Hans partis strategi er i direkte modstrid med BCB’s m\u00e5l: Inflationsbek\u00e6mpelse kr\u00e6ver netop en \u00f8konomisk afmatning, h\u00f8jere arbejdsl\u00f8shed og lavere kredittilg\u00e6ngelighed gennem h\u00f8jere udl\u00e5nsrenter.<\/p>\n

Det er ikke unaturligt at diskutere den monet\u00e6re politik i Brasilien eftersom den nuv\u00e6rende cyklus af pengepolitiske stramninger er den mest signifikante i mere end et \u00e5rti. Den toneangivende rente gik fra et rekordlavt niveau til det h\u00f8jeste niveau i seks \u00e5r p\u00e5 blot 18 m\u00e5neder. Det betyder, at realrenten nu er p\u00e5 omkring 7,5 procent, hvilket er blandt de h\u00f8jeste i verden. I mellemtiden k\u00e6mper andre lande med negative realrenter midt i en h\u00f8jinflationsperiode. Dette illustrerer alvoren af Brasiliens nuv\u00e6rende stramningscyklus og derfor er pr\u00e6sident Lula bekymret for dens indvirkning p\u00e5 den \u00f8konomiske aktivitet.<\/p>\n

Den interne sp\u00e6nding i Brasilien forst\u00e6rkes n\u00e5r Lula og hans allierede fors\u00f8ger at f\u00e5 centralbanken til at s\u00e6nke renten gennem offentlige udtalelser. Hertil kommer gadeprotester sammen med en opfordring til at h\u00e6ve inflationsm\u00e5let, for at retf\u00e6rdigg\u00f8re hans krav om renteneds\u00e6ttelser.<\/p>\n

Denne aggressive tilgang over for BCB giver anledning til bekymring om politisk indblanding i de pengepolitiske beslutninger, hvilket investorer frygter er et angreb p\u00e5 centralbankens uafh\u00e6ngighed.<\/p>\n

Brasilien er ikke alene<\/h3>\n

Brasilien er et af de lande der har gjort sine erfaringer med hensyn til centralbankens uafh\u00e6ngighed. I 2011 tog den tidligere pr\u00e6sident Dilma Rousseff den samme tilgang til BCB, og da den bukkede under for det politiske pres, stemte det pengepolitiske udvalg for at s\u00e6nke renten, selv om markedsforventningerne pegede p\u00e5, at inflationen ville blive ved med at ligge over m\u00e5let i endnu et \u00e5r.<\/p>\n

Det samme har Tyrkiet oplevet de seneste \u00e5r. Pr\u00e6sident Recep Tayyip Erdogan var uenig i de renteforh\u00f8jelser, som Tyrkiets centralbank gennemf\u00f8rte. Pr\u00e6sident Erdogan p\u00e5lagde derfor centralbanken at s\u00e6nke renten, selv om markedets forventninger til inflationen for de f\u00f8lgende to \u00e5r fortsat l\u00e5 langt over de officielle m\u00e5l. Efter flere frustrerede fors\u00f8g p\u00e5 at gribe ind i centralbankens pengepolitik afskedigede Erdogan centralbankdirekt\u00f8ren i 2019 og senere fyrede han to andre centralbankdirekt\u00f8rer, indtil han endelig fik en rentes\u00e6nkning i september 2021. Mens renterne faldt, steg forventningerne til inflationen dramatisk i den efterf\u00f8lgende tid. Som det fremg\u00e5r af figur et l\u00e5 Tyrkiets inflation i marts 2023 fortsat p\u00e5 50,5 procent, hvilket dog er lavere end h\u00f8jdepunktet p\u00e5 85,5 procent i oktober 2022.<\/p>\n

\"Pr\u00e6sident<\/p>\n

Virkninger p\u00e5 de finansielle markeder<\/h3>\n

Det er usandsynligt, at Lula gennem sin retorik vil lykkes med at tvinge centralbanken til at s\u00e6nke renten. Centralbanken er fast besluttet p\u00e5 at holde renteniveauet p\u00e5 et stramt niveau og den vil ikke t\u00f8ve med yderligere stramninger, hvis inflationsudviklingen ikke g\u00e5r som forventet. Dette scenarie indeb\u00e6rer vedvarende politisk st\u00f8j og volatilitet i finansmarkedet.<\/p>\n

Den mest direkte virkning af denne fastl\u00e5ste situation kan ogs\u00e5 observeres i de seneste forventninger til renteudviklingen.<\/p>\n

F\u00f8r valget i oktober 2022 viste Focus Market Readout, en rapport som BCB udarbejder med udgangspunkt i markedsanalytikeres forventninger, at renteneds\u00e6ttelserne ville starte i juni 2023 og bringe Selic ned til 8 percent ved udgangen af 2024. Som det fremg\u00e5r af figur to, forventer markedsakt\u00f8rerne efter de f\u00f8rste tre m\u00e5neder af Lulas regeringstid, at den toneangivende rente f\u00f8rst bliver s\u00e6nket fra september i \u00e5r og frem. De nye forventninger er desuden, at Selic vil ligge p\u00e5 10 procent ved udgangen af n\u00e6ste \u00e5r, og det er alts\u00e5 noget af en forskydning ud i tiden.<\/p>\n

\"Pr\u00e6sident<\/p>\n

Meget tyder desuden p\u00e5, at Lulas regering griber til skattepolitikken, og vil, gennem h\u00f8jere skatteindt\u00e6gter, \u00f8ge de offentlige udgifter. Hvis det bliver tilf\u00e6ldet, s\u00e5 forventer vi, at inflationen og renterne forbliver h\u00f8je i l\u00e6ngere tid end, hvad der er indregnet i finansmarkederne i dag. Derfor mener vi ikke, at det er \u00e5benlyst at \u00f8ge allokeringen til Brasilien i investeringsportef\u00f8ljen, tv\u00e6rtimod er det en fortsat underv\u00e6gtning af det Latinamerikanske land.<\/p>\n

Men vurderingen kan vi hurtigt \u00e6ndre, da de brasilianske renter er historisk h\u00f8je, derfor kan enhver nyhed der peger i retning af et finanspolitisk ansvarligt milj\u00f8 g\u00f8re det ganske attraktivt at \u00f8ge eksponeringen mod Brasilien.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Lulas tilgang til landets centralbank BCB har forv\u00e6rret b\u00e5de forventningerne til inflationen og Selic-prognoserne siden han blev valgt. Dette scenarie er en udfordring for den \u00f8konomiske v\u00e6kst, og obligationsrenterne har n\u00e5et h\u00f8je niveauer i de seneste m\u00e5neder.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":102,"featured_media":9118,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[2],"tags":[7,5],"yoast_head":"\nPr\u00e6sident Lulas pres p\u00e5 centralbanken kan bremse landets v\u00e6kst - Lundgreens Investor Insights DK<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Lulas tilgang til landets centralbank BCB har forv\u00e6rret b\u00e5de forventningerne til inflationen og Selic-prognoserne siden han blev valgt. 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