{"id":9072,"date":"2023-04-24T07:13:00","date_gmt":"2023-04-24T05:13:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/kinas-vaekst-overgar-forventningerne\/"},"modified":"2023-05-15T07:53:08","modified_gmt":"2023-05-15T05:53:08","slug":"kinas-vaekst-overgar-forventningerne","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/kinas-vaekst-overgar-forventningerne\/","title":{"rendered":"Kinas v\u00e6kst overg\u00e5r forventningerne"},"content":{"rendered":"

Jeg synes, at det var en sp\u00e6ndende dag, den 18. april, da Kinas bnp-v\u00e6kst for f\u00f8rste kvartal blev offentliggjort. Og forventningen om sp\u00e6nding blev da ogs\u00e5 indl\u00f8st, for en \u00e5rlig v\u00e6kstrate p\u00e5 4,5 pct. i forhold til 4,o pct. (grafik et), som var den generelle markedsforventning, er nok til at give den begivenhed ekstraordin\u00e6r opm\u00e6rksomhed.<\/p>\n

\"Kinas

Kilde: National Bureau of Statistics of China, Kina<\/p><\/div>\n

Jeg har set en del analyser om Kinas \u00f8konomi, der tager udgangspunkt i, at denne skal komme tilbage efter en historisk nedtur i 2022. Det lyder som om, at landets \u00f8konomi har v\u00e6ret i recession, men det er ikke tilf\u00e6ldet. Sidste \u00e5rs bnp-v\u00e6kst blev p\u00e5 kun 3,0 pct., hvilket er meget lavt i den moderne kinesiske \u00f8konomis historie. Men den lave v\u00e6kst var selvskabt idet der blev gennemf\u00f8rt mange covid-19 relaterede nedlukninger.<\/p>\n

Den lavere v\u00e6kst skyldes alts\u00e5 ikke nogen pludselig opst\u00e5et \u00f8konomisk krise, der skal findes en l\u00f8sning p\u00e5. Regeringen inds\u00e5, at de gentagne nedlukninger af \u00f8konomien virkelig ikke blev accepteret af befolkningen, og derfor m\u00e5tte man stoppe nedlukningerne. Den \u00e6ndring vil i sig selv give en h\u00f8jere v\u00e6kst i \u00e5r, og jeg forventer, at det bliver den st\u00f8rste enkeltst\u00e5ende \u00e5rsag til den h\u00f8jere bnp-v\u00e6kst.<\/p>\n

En af de indenlandske centrale \u00f8konomiske kr\u00e6fter, som jeg har allermest fokus p\u00e5, er detailsalget. Ogs\u00e5 i Kina vil et stigende privatforbrug v\u00e6re meget velkomment for at f\u00e5 den \u00f8konomiske v\u00e6kst til at accelerere mere, men ogs\u00e5 for at skabe en bredere \u00f8konomisk v\u00e6kst. Det ville v\u00e6re let at argumentere for, at Kina nu br\u00f8ler frem efter stigningen p\u00e5 10,6 procent i detailsalget i marts (grafik to), mod en forventet v\u00e6kst p\u00e5 7,0 pct.<\/p>\n

\"Kinas

Kilde: National Bureau of Statistics of China, Kina<\/p><\/div>\n

For et \u00e5r tilbage var faldet i detailsalget i perioden februar til april signifikant, hvilket giver en s\u00e5kaldt basiseffekt. Det betyder, at der meget sandsynligt vil v\u00e6re en stigning \u00e5ret efter, blot fordi \u00f8konomien g\u00e5r tilbage mod normaliteten. Det g\u00f8r det sv\u00e6rt pr\u00e6cist at bed\u00f8mme den reelle fremgang bag den aktuelle stigning. Min vurdering er trods alt, at detailsalget i \u00f8jeblikket vokser mere end forventet, dog er det er endnu for tidligt at konkludere, hvor stor og robust, at fremgangen er.<\/p>\n

Den meget omdiskuterede ejendomssektor er stadig svag efter de katastrofale tider for ejendomsudviklerne. Disse alvorlige vanskeligheder vil stadig tage nogen tid at overvinde, og vil forblive som en modvind i den kinesiske \u00f8konomi. Det er min klare vurdering, at de v\u00e6rste tider er forbi, men der mangler fortsat en konsoliderende fase.<\/p>\n

Meget interessant er det, at ejendomspriserne i det private boligmarked faktisk er stigende igen. Jeg ser det som endnu et tegn p\u00e5 en vis stabilisering blandt private husholdninger, selvom jeg dermed p\u00e5 ingen m\u00e5de fors\u00f8ger at forudsige et st\u00e6rkt opsving p\u00e5 det kinesiske ejendomsmarked.<\/p>\n

Investeringer foretaget i den private erhvervssektor repr\u00e6senterer den svageste udvikling i f\u00f8rste kvartal i Kina, hvilket kan tyde p\u00e5 en fortsat forsigtighed. Det betragter jeg som et tegn p\u00e5, at Kinas \u00f8konomi langt fra er tilbage p\u00e5 fuldt omdrejningsniveau. S\u00e5dan en tilbageholdenhed, eller svaghed, kan samtidig v\u00e6re potentiel kilde til volatilitet i \u00f8konomien, idet der stadig kan ske et omsving til fuldst\u00e6ndig stilstand. S\u00e5danne former for usikkerhed betragter jeg som den st\u00f8rste trussel mod den forventede h\u00f8jere bnp-v\u00e6kst.<\/p>\n

Det hele lyder lidt som frem og tilbage, og en balance mellem gode takter og tr\u00e6g udvikling i forskellige omr\u00e5der af \u00f8konomien \u2013 hvordan kan jeg finde det s\u00e6rligt sp\u00e6ndende?<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Der er et par udviklinger, som jeg till\u00e6gger en s\u00e6rlig betydning. Den generelle markedsforventning er en kinesisk bnp-v\u00e6kst p\u00e5 4,5 pct. i \u00e5r, og \u00f8konomien er faktisk allerede tilbage p\u00e5 sporet. Prim\u00e6rt bare fordi nedlukningerne er stoppet, dette viser en grundl\u00e6ggende sund styrke i \u00f8konomien, og meget st\u00e6rkere end de vestlige \u00f8konomier.<\/p>\n

Som n\u00e6vnt, vil ejendomssektoren h\u00f8jst sandsynligt stadig tr\u00e6kke v\u00e6ksten ned i Kinas \u00f8konomi i nogen tid endnu. Det har ogs\u00e5 en negativ betydning for segmenter der er relateret til sektoren f.eks. facility management, h\u00e5rde hvidevarer samt anden elektronik til husholdninger og m\u00f8bler.<\/p>\n

Som en positiv modv\u00e6gt er eksporten bedre end forventet, der har v\u00e6ret en stor stigning i eksport af elbiler, samt en politisk sensitiv udvikling set fra vestlig side, nemlig en stigende eksport til Rusland. Flertallet af \u00f8konomer forventer en svagere fremgang i eksporten resten af \u00e5ret grundet en global afmatning. Jeg argumenterer dog for, at den globale \u00f8konomi er i bedre form end et flertal af \u00f8konomerne mener, og derfor er jeg ikke helt s\u00e5 negativ p\u00e5 den front.<\/p>\n

Den grundl\u00e6ggende kinesiske \u00f8konomi betragter jeg som st\u00e6rk, hvilket er en god base for et endnu mere positivt \u00e5r 2024. Min vurdering er, at den nuv\u00e6rende st\u00e6rkere base med de endnu bedre udsigter for n\u00e6ste \u00e5r endnu ikke er indregnet i de kinesiske aktiekurser i st\u00f8rre omfang. Desuden anser jeg stadig en r\u00e6kke vestlige fonde for at v\u00e6re underv\u00e6gtede i kinesiske aktier. Disse fonde vil relativt set v\u00e6re endnu mere bagud i markedet, n\u00e5r det kinesiske aktiemarked begynder at bev\u00e6ge sig h\u00f8jere p\u00e5 grund af den fundamentale st\u00e6rke \u00f8konomi \u2013 det er sp\u00e6ndende nok for mig.<\/p>\n

Lundgreen\u2019s Capital r\u00e5dgiver formuende og professionelle kunder i ind- og udland, og er repr\u00e6senteret i Asien. Lundgreen\u2019s Capital driver desuden investeringsforeningen Lundgreen\u2019s Invest \u2013 China samt flere alternative investeringsfonde. Omtales et selskab, som Lundgreen\u2019s har investeret i, vil dette tydeligt fremg\u00e5 af klummen.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Verdens n\u00e6stst\u00f8rste \u00f8konomi er naturligvis l\u00f8bende et tema i finansmarkedet, og op til diskussion \u2013 efter f\u00f8rste kvartals bnp-data er dette tilf\u00e6ldet igen.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":9073,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[2],"tags":[7,5],"yoast_head":"\nKinas v\u00e6kst overg\u00e5r forventningerne - Lundgreens Investor Insights DK<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/kinas-vaekst-overgar-forventningerne\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Kinas v\u00e6kst overg\u00e5r forventningerne - Lundgreens Investor Insights DK\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Verdens n\u00e6stst\u00f8rste \u00f8konomi er naturligvis l\u00f8bende et tema i finansmarkedet, og op til diskussion \u2013 efter f\u00f8rste kvartals bnp-data er dette tilf\u00e6ldet igen.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/kinas-vaekst-overgar-forventningerne\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Lundgreens Investor Insights DK\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/lundgreenscapitaluk\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-04-24T05:13:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-05-15T05:53:08+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/1\/files\/sites\/4\/2023\/04\/240420231682315829.jpeg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"724\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"483\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@LundgreensCPTL\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@LundgreensCPTL\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Peter Lundgreen\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/#organization\",\"name\":\"Lundgreens Investor Insights DK\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/\",\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/lundgreenscapitaluk\/\",\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/peter-lundgreen-50411925\/\",\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/LundgreensCPTL\"],\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/#logo\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/1\/files\/sites\/4\/2021\/12\/eye-transparent.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/1\/files\/sites\/4\/2021\/12\/eye-transparent.png\",\"width\":200,\"height\":200,\"caption\":\"Lundgreens Investor Insights DK\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/#logo\"}},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/\",\"name\":\"Lundgreens Investor Insights DK\",\"description\":\"Professional Investment Advisory, Financial Services, and Global Market Insights\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/kinas-vaekst-overgar-forventningerne\/#primaryimage\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/1\/files\/sites\/4\/2023\/04\/240420231682315829.jpeg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/1\/files\/sites\/4\/2023\/04\/240420231682315829.jpeg\",\"width\":724,\"height\":483},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/kinas-vaekst-overgar-forventningerne\/#webpage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/kinas-vaekst-overgar-forventningerne\/\",\"name\":\"Kinas v\\u00e6kst overg\\u00e5r forventningerne - 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