{"id":8878,"date":"2021-06-06T20:06:00","date_gmt":"2021-06-06T18:06:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/dollaren-i-inflationens-storm-2\/"},"modified":"2022-02-17T09:29:02","modified_gmt":"2022-02-17T08:29:02","slug":"dollaren-i-inflationens-storm-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/dollaren-i-inflationens-storm-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Dollaren i inflationens storm"},"content":{"rendered":"

Dollarens andel af reservevalutaerne hos verdens centralbanker er faldet gennem de seneste 25 \u00e5r. Opg\u00f8relser fra Den Internationale Valutafond (IMF) viser denne udvikling hvert \u00e5r, og s\u00e5ledes udg\u00f8r dollaren nu knap 60 pct. af de samlede reserver hos centralbankerne, hvilket, som n\u00e6vnt, er det laveste i 25 \u00e5r. Dette virker jo som et validt argument i vurderingen af, at dollaren er ved at m\u00f8de sit endeligt, men sandheden er, at f.eks. for 20 \u00e5r siden fyldte dollaren ca. 70 pct. af de samlede reserver. S\u00e5 \u00e6ndringen i sammens\u00e6tningen af reserverne er i realiteten en meget langsom bev\u00e6gelse, og derfor p\u00e5virker denne udvikling valutakurserne ganske lidt, og signalet i \u00e6ndringen er heller ikke signifikant.<\/p>\n

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En anden m\u00e5de at relativere argumentet om dollarens status som reservevaluta, er ved en sammenligning med formuen i den private sektor. Vores egen seneste samment\u00e6lling af de samlede reserver hos centralbankerne viser reserver for ca. 15.000 milliarder dollar, hvilket er en betragtelig sum. Men, hvis man f.eks. inddrager estimaterne fra den \u00e5rlige \u201dThe global wealth report\u201d fra den schweiziske storbank Credit Suisse, s\u00e5 var v\u00e6ksten i den globale private formue \/ wealth p\u00e5 hele 36.000 milliarder dollar i 2019. Nu var det \u00e5r s\u00e6rligt solbeskinnet, men tallet udtrykker trods alt blot \u00e6ndringen i den samlede formue globalt hos private investorer, hvilket skal s\u00e6ttes i forhold til centralbankernes samlede reserver. Jeg fremdrager denne relativering fordi jeg ganske enkelt har et forbehold over for nogle af de argumenter der inddrages i diskussionen om dollarens retning i tiden.<\/p>\n

H\u00f8j inflation er helt sikkert en trussel mod en stabil valuta, hvor USA er kommet i fokus med sin h\u00f8je inflation (grafik et). Lige nu er inflationen stigende over hele verden, hvilket g\u00f8r det sv\u00e6rt at h\u00e6vde, at en bestemt \u00f8konomi eller valuta er i en udpr\u00e6get risiko p\u00e5 grund af den h\u00f8je inflation. Derfor giver denne udvikling ikke umiddelbart anledning til, at jeg \u00e6ndrer mit syn p\u00e5 dollaren. Grafik to viser dollarudviklingen overfor en kurv af valutaer, og man ser, at dollaren har tabt fire til fem pct. i forbindelse med Covid-19 krisen, dog vurderer jeg bev\u00e6gelsen som inden for almindelige udsving.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

En del af den nuv\u00e6rende bekymring for dollaren er baseret p\u00e5 meget langsigtede udviklinger, som f.eks. udviklingen i centralbankreserverne. Disse langsigtede kr\u00e6fter giver ikke investorer svar p\u00e5 retningen for dollaren resten af \u200b\u200bdette \u00e5r, og en eventuel forskel i inflationen rundt om i verden vil heller ikke foranledige st\u00f8rre korrekturer mellem de st\u00f8rste valutaer i \u00e5r. Jeg forventer, at skulle dollaren tage en ny retning i de kommende seks m\u00e5neder skal det for\u00e5rsages af andre kr\u00e6fter.<\/p>\n

Det globale valutamarked har dog et dysfunktionelt element, fordi den kinesiske renminbi ikke er frit flydende. Med en svag \u00f8konomi og delvis negative renter i Eurozonen kombineret med voksende bekymring over udsigterne for den amerikanske inflation, ville resultatet under naturlige forhold v\u00e6re en kapitalstr\u00f8m mod Kina. I l\u00f8bet af de sidste 3 uger har denne kapitalstr\u00f8m fundet sted og sendt renminbien op p\u00e5 det h\u00f8jeste niveau i tre \u00e5r overfor dollaren.<\/p>\n

I et frit flydende valutamarked er jeg overbevist om, at bev\u00e6gelsen ville have v\u00e6ret meget st\u00f8rre, men nu er der en teknisk grund til, at valutamarkederne forbliver ret stabile. Midt i den makro\u00f8konomiske diskussion opst\u00e5r der derfor en pragmatisk forklaring p\u00e5 det ret stabile valutamarked. Flere investorer overvejer helt givet en delvis tilbagetr\u00e6kning ud af dollaren, men euroen er langt fra den mest attraktive destination, hvilket igen resulterer i en blokeret situation, som delvist forklarer, hvorfor der ikke etableres nye langsigtede bev\u00e6gelser i valutamarkedet.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Ser man p\u00e5 grundl\u00e6ggende \u00e5rsager til, at en valuta kan bev\u00e6ge sig og, hvor reaktionen kan komme meget hurtigt s\u00e5 er der to vigtige situationer, som jeg giver s\u00e6rlig opm\u00e6rksomhed. En ekstraordin\u00e6r st\u00e6rk krise eller frygt bev\u00e6ger investorer, men disse to situationer f\u00f8rer ikke n\u00f8dvendigvis til de samme markedsreaktioner. I en st\u00e6rk krise (krig, global katastrofe, meget store terrorhandlinger etc.) v\u00e6lger investorer, virksomheder osv. at have et h\u00f8jt likviditetsberedskab. Det skaffer man bl.a. ved at s\u00e6lge finansielle aktiver, og derfor kan meget g\u00e6ldsatte lande blive ekstraordin\u00e6rt presset. Da USA har udviklet sig til en gigantisk debitornation, skal man derfor ikke blive overrasket, hvis dollaren falder i s\u00e5dan en situation.<\/p>\n

Det er ikke umuligt, at nogle investorer i tiden \u00f8ger deres bekymring mere for en egentlig st\u00e6rk krise, mens andre investorer mere frygter uro og derfor s\u00f8ger den sikre havn. Som n\u00e6vnt, argumenterer jeg, at de to kr\u00e6fter modvirker hinanden, sk\u00f8nt det ikke virker intuitivt logisk. Yderligere et lod i sk\u00e5len til dollarens fordel er ganske enkelt det h\u00f8jere renteniveau i USA, specielt i forhold til euroen.<\/p>\n

Jeg er ikke i tvivl om, at under normale omst\u00e6ndigheder ville der for l\u00e6ngst have v\u00e6ret startet nye lange bev\u00e6gelser i valutamarkedet, men \u201dnormal\u201d er sat ud af spillet. Samlet set er min vurdering derfor stadig ret udramatisk, hvor en mindre dollarsv\u00e6kkelse er en mulighed, men mit prim\u00e6re scenarie er fortsat relativt beskedne udsving.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Den store fokus p\u00e5 inflation har ogs\u00e5 givet fornyet stof til diskussionen om retningen for dollaren, herunder om den eneste reservevaluta i verden ligefrem st\u00e5r foran et regul\u00e6rt styrtdyk.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8928,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[2],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\nDollaren i inflationens storm - Lundgreens Investor Insights DK<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/dollaren-i-inflationens-storm-2\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Dollaren i inflationens storm - Lundgreens Investor Insights DK\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Den store fokus p\u00e5 inflation har ogs\u00e5 givet fornyet stof til diskussionen om retningen for dollaren, herunder om den eneste reservevaluta i verden ligefrem st\u00e5r foran et regul\u00e6rt styrtdyk.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/dollaren-i-inflationens-storm-2\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Lundgreens Investor Insights DK\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/lundgreenscapitaluk\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2021-06-06T18:06:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-02-17T08:29:02+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/1\/files\/sites\/4\/2022\/02\/030220221643876984.jpeg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"792\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"440\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@LundgreensCPTL\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@LundgreensCPTL\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Peter Lundgreen\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/#organization\",\"name\":\"Lundgreens Investor Insights DK\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/\",\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/lundgreenscapitaluk\/\",\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/peter-lundgreen-50411925\/\",\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/LundgreensCPTL\"],\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/#logo\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/1\/files\/sites\/4\/2021\/12\/eye-transparent.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/1\/files\/sites\/4\/2021\/12\/eye-transparent.png\",\"width\":200,\"height\":200,\"caption\":\"Lundgreens Investor Insights DK\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/#logo\"}},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/\",\"name\":\"Lundgreens Investor Insights DK\",\"description\":\"Professional Investment Advisory, Financial Services, and Global Market Insights\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/dollaren-i-inflationens-storm-2\/#primaryimage\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/1\/files\/sites\/4\/2022\/02\/030220221643876984.jpeg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/1\/files\/sites\/4\/2022\/02\/030220221643876984.jpeg\",\"width\":792,\"height\":440},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/dollaren-i-inflationens-storm-2\/#webpage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/dollaren-i-inflationens-storm-2\/\",\"name\":\"Dollaren i inflationens storm - 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