{"id":8813,"date":"2021-11-14T14:11:00","date_gmt":"2021-11-14T13:11:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/det-bliver-slapt-pa-wall-street-i-2022\/"},"modified":"2022-02-16T08:03:25","modified_gmt":"2022-02-16T07:03:25","slug":"det-bliver-slapt-pa-wall-street-i-2022","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/det-bliver-slapt-pa-wall-street-i-2022\/","title":{"rendered":"Det bliver slapt p\u00e5 Wall Street i 2022"},"content":{"rendered":"

Finansmarkedet er tilbage i den behagelige rytme, hvor Wall Street s\u00e6tter nye rekorder hver dag. Jeg kan m\u00e6rke p\u00e5 mange investorer, at det, ikke overraskende, bidrager til et ubekymret forhold til formuens videre udvikling. Den n\u00e6sten daglige stigning, specielt p\u00e5 Wall Street, f\u00f8rer automatisk til tanken om, hvor l\u00e6nge det kan g\u00e5 godt? Naturligvis er det en fornuftig overvejelse, men et andet sp\u00f8rgsm\u00e5l er, om en stor korrektur er det centrale sp\u00f8rgsm\u00e5l, som en investor skal besk\u00e6ftige sig med?<\/p>\n

Der er stadig halvanden m\u00e5ned tilbage af dette \u00e5r, og meget kan h\u00e6nde endnu. Udviklingen kan stadig indeholde alt fra en k\u00e6mpe negativ korrektur i aktiemarkedet til, at specielt amerikanske aktier slutter \u00e5ret omkring det h\u00f8jeste nogensinde. Hvis man tager udgangspunkt i den nuv\u00e6rende situation, s\u00e5 st\u00e5r man p\u00e5 kurstoppen i USA\u2019s aktiemarked og ser ind i 2022, og alene for i \u00e5r har man en stigning p\u00e5 22,5% med i bagagen. Det kan nok f\u00e5 en investor eller to til at synke en ekstra gang n\u00e5r man overvejer allokeringen for 2022.<\/p>\n

Blot udviklingen i det amerikanske S & P 500 indeks gennem de seneste fem \u00e5r mener jeg udm\u00e6rket, at man kan uddrage noget erfaring af (grafik et). G\u00e5r man fem \u00e5r tilbage, til ultimo oktober 2016, og fem \u00e5r frem s\u00e5 har S&P 500 givet ca. 125% i afkast. Det er m\u00e5lt i dollars, men som grafik to viser, s\u00e5 har valutamarkedet forholdt sig ganske roligt i den periode. For en europ\u00e6isk baseret investor har den negative valutaeffekt derfor blot v\u00e6ret omkring fem pct., og alts\u00e5 et netto afkast p\u00e5 120%. Det er betragteligt mere end Euronext 100 indekset der har givet et afkast p\u00e5 52,5% i samme periode.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Selv om man ikke besk\u00e6ftiger sig med at investere i enkeltaktier, men udelukkende har fokus p\u00e5 f.eks. sektorer og geografiske omr\u00e5der, s\u00e5 er det langt fra ligegyldigt hvilke \u00e6g man l\u00e6gger i sin aktiekurv. Sektorvalgene giver sig selv, her skal man finde v\u00e6kstomr\u00e5derne. Men S&P 500 versus Euronext 100 udtrykker bl.a. ogs\u00e5 helt fundamentale faktorer der ikke er nogen nyhed, men typisk repr\u00e6senterer nogle store tandhjul der drejer hele tiden.<\/p>\n

F.eks. har Europa ikke nogen Silicon Valley, end ikke en fraktion af omr\u00e5det syd for San Francisco, og der er heller ikke udsigt til, at nogen omr\u00e5der i Europa bev\u00e6ger sig i den retning. P\u00e5 trods af, at den amerikanske \u00f8konomi er st\u00f8rre end Eurozonen, s\u00e5 vurderer jeg den som v\u00e6rende v\u00e6sentligt mere fleksibel, og heller ikke her ser jeg nogen \u00e6ndring. Begge er eksempler p\u00e5 elementer der har en signifikant betydning for aktiemarkedernes udvikling p\u00e5 lang sigt.<\/p>\n

I \u00e5revis har jeg argumenteret for, at investorer i den geografiske allokering skulle underv\u00e6gte Eurozonen. Selv med den meget store forskel i afkastet p\u00e5 de to n\u00e6vnte aktieindeks s\u00e5 ser jeg ingen \u00e5rsag til, at \u00e6ndre anbefalingen af en underv\u00e6gtning af Eurozonen, ogs\u00e5 n\u00e5r man ser ind i 2022. Det eneste skulle v\u00e6re en justering, hvis amerikanske aktier begynder at fylde for meget i portef\u00f8ljen.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Jeg forst\u00e5r dog udm\u00e6rket bekymringen for en korrektur i USA\u2019s aktiemarked. Den kan blive 20% og komme ud af ingenting, hvilket dog p\u00e5kr\u00e6ver, at aktiemarkedet er decideret overvurderet. Min egen \u00e5rtier lange erfaring er, at en korrektur af signifikant st\u00f8rrelse er utrolig sv\u00e6r at forudsige, og desuden skal timingen v\u00e6re fuldst\u00e6ndig perfekt. Scenariet man ofte oplever er, at investorer m\u00e5ske f\u00e5r ret i en korrektur p\u00e5 15% men aktiemarkedet n\u00e5ede at stige 30% inden da, ergo er det et d\u00e5rligt nettoresultat.<\/p>\n

Hvis man opfanger, og forudser, en stor korrektur i starten af bev\u00e6gelsen s\u00e5 er det da helt naturligt at reagere p\u00e5 udviklingen, og dermed reducere sin risiko, jeg vil selvf\u00f8lgelig ingenlunde opfordre til passivitet. Jeg ser risikoen for en korrektur som mere overh\u00e6ngende end den har v\u00e6ret, men det er omvendt ogs\u00e5 risikoen, som jeg vurderer den lige nu \u2013 ikke brandvarm, men den er sted i yderkanten af radarsk\u00e6rmen.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

N\u00e5r jeg ser ind i 2022, er den kr\u00e6vende vurdering om de f\u00f8rn\u00e6vnte store tandhjul fortsat vil dreje med den hastighed, som er indregnet i aktiekurserne. I Eurozonen f\u00e5r EU\u2019s hj\u00e6lpepakker p\u00e5 et tidspunkt en effekt, men risikoen er, at investorerne ser igennem hj\u00e6lpepakkerne, og dermed ikke vurderer, at hj\u00e6lpen har en langfristet positiv effekt p\u00e5 aktiemarkedet.<\/p>\n

Dermed ender den prim\u00e6re fokus igen med at v\u00e6re p\u00e5 Wall Street, og her mener jeg ikke, at man ikke skal underkende risikoen for, at det forventede \u00f8konomiske opsving i USA bliver udskudt yderligere, eller ligefrem l\u00f8ber ud i sandet.<\/p>\n

Hertil kommer risikoen for en tiltagende investorbekymring for, om de amerikanske myndigheder vil komme med tiltag overfor nogle af de store tech-virksomheder. Min vurdering er lige nu, at den st\u00f8rste risiko for det amerikanske aktiemarked til n\u00e6ste \u00e5r, er, at de bekymringer f\u00f8rer til, at Wall Street mister sit momentum, hvilket i l\u00f8bet af \u00e5ret kunne f\u00e5 investorer til at reducere deres aktieallokeringer i jagten p\u00e5 afkast andre steder.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Gennem 2021 har der v\u00e6ret en vis frygt for en stor korrektur i aktiemarkedet, men den reelle risiko kunne ogs\u00e5 se anderledes ud.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8940,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[2],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\nDet bliver slapt p\u00e5 Wall Street i 2022 - Lundgreens Investor Insights DK<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/det-bliver-slapt-pa-wall-street-i-2022\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Det bliver slapt p\u00e5 Wall Street i 2022 - Lundgreens Investor Insights DK\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Gennem 2021 har der v\u00e6ret en vis frygt for en stor korrektur i aktiemarkedet, men den reelle risiko kunne ogs\u00e5 se anderledes ud.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/det-bliver-slapt-pa-wall-street-i-2022\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Lundgreens Investor Insights DK\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/lundgreenscapitaluk\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2021-11-14T13:11:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-02-16T07:03:25+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/1\/files\/sites\/4\/2022\/02\/030220221643877037.jpeg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"726\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"481\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@LundgreensCPTL\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@LundgreensCPTL\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Peter Lundgreen\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/#organization\",\"name\":\"Lundgreens Investor Insights DK\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/\",\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/lundgreenscapitaluk\/\",\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/peter-lundgreen-50411925\/\",\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/LundgreensCPTL\"],\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/#logo\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/1\/files\/sites\/4\/2021\/12\/eye-transparent.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/1\/files\/sites\/4\/2021\/12\/eye-transparent.png\",\"width\":200,\"height\":200,\"caption\":\"Lundgreens Investor Insights DK\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/#logo\"}},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/\",\"name\":\"Lundgreens Investor Insights DK\",\"description\":\"Professional Investment Advisory, Financial Services, and Global Market Insights\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/det-bliver-slapt-pa-wall-street-i-2022\/#primaryimage\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/1\/files\/sites\/4\/2022\/02\/030220221643877037.jpeg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/1\/files\/sites\/4\/2022\/02\/030220221643877037.jpeg\",\"width\":726,\"height\":481},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/det-bliver-slapt-pa-wall-street-i-2022\/#webpage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/det-bliver-slapt-pa-wall-street-i-2022\/\",\"name\":\"Det bliver slapt p\\u00e5 Wall Street i 2022 - 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