{"id":8811,"date":"2021-11-10T16:11:00","date_gmt":"2021-11-10T15:11:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/aktieinvestorernes-jagt-pa-afkast\/"},"modified":"2022-02-16T08:01:23","modified_gmt":"2022-02-16T07:01:23","slug":"aktieinvestorernes-jagt-pa-afkast","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/aktieinvestorernes-jagt-pa-afkast\/","title":{"rendered":"Aktieinvestorernes jagt p\u00e5 afkast"},"content":{"rendered":"

Den amerikanske centralbank Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) annoncerede i sidste uge, at centralbanken nu begynder at reducere sit opk\u00f8b af obligationer (grafik et viser beholdningen af statsobligationer). For et \u00e5r siden ville denne meddelelse have sendt det amerikanske aktiemarked direkte i d\u00f8rken, men det skete ikke i den forl\u00f8bne uge.<\/p>\n

Den reaktion var umiddelbart en god nyhed for aktieinvestorer og, hvis man ser tilbage p\u00e5 Feds retorik gennem 2021, s\u00e5 har centralbanken endnu en gang mestret kommunikationen til markedet s\u00e6rdeles godt, hvilket fortjener anerkendelse. Trods den afslappede reaktion i denne uge, s\u00e5 vurderer jeg dog stadig, at aktiefesten i USA bliver sat p\u00e5 \u201dhold\u201d i en periode.<\/p>\n

Den forel\u00f8bigt opmuntrende reaktion efter Feds meddelelse i sidste uge \u00e6ndrer ikke ved mit prim\u00e6re scenarie frem til slut n\u00e6ste \u00e5r. B\u00e5de den amerikanske og den globale \u00f8konomi er p\u00e5 vej frem igen, og mange store virksomheder rapporterer stadig gode regnskabstal. Dette er dog allerede indregnet i aktiekurserne et par gange, og desuden er den makro\u00f8konomiske fremgang forsinket i forhold til forventningerne. Reelt set burde forsinkelsen i forventningerne v\u00e6re en skuffelse, men omvendt er der, som n\u00e6vnt, fremgang. Derfor er mit prim\u00e6re scenarie fortsat, ogs\u00e5 efter Feds meddelelse i denne uge, at aktiemarkederne i USA og Eurozonen til n\u00e6ste \u00e5r vil udvikle sig relativt fladt. Luften er blevet tyndere, men udsigten for det helt store kursdyk er ikke en voldsom trussel lige nu. I mit prim\u00e6re scenarie indg\u00e5r derfor ogs\u00e5, at investorer i stigende grad vil s\u00f8ge mod andre gr\u00e6sgange med h\u00e5bet om, at gr\u00e6sset er gr\u00f8nnere der. Grafik to viser for eksempel den tiltagende s\u00f8gning mod private equity.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>Den s\u00f8gen vil bringe et stigende antal investorer i forskellige retninger, hvor risiciene lige pludselig f\u00e5r flere dimensioner. \u00c9n bev\u00e6gelse, som jeg forventer snart vil tiltage er en stigende kapitalbev\u00e6gelse i retning Emerging Markets lande (hvor jeg ikke betragter Kina som et Emerging Markets land l\u00e6ngere). Det lyder blot som en almindelig \u00e6ndring i allokeringen, men Covid-19 har efter min vurdering \u00e6ndret Emerging Markets landskabet ganske betragteligt.<\/p>\n

N\u00e5r Emerging Markets landene \u00e5bner op s\u00e5 argumenterer jeg, at det definitivt er tid til at allokere mere af portef\u00f8ljen i den retning. Dog er jeg mest komfortabel med ASEAN-omr\u00e5det, alts\u00e5 det klassiske Fjern\u00f8sten, og derfor er det v\u00e6rd at studere, hvad de forskellige investeringsforeninger \/ fonde indeholder, desuden h\u00e6lder jeg pt. til at fastholde investeringerne i lokal valuta (frem for de s\u00e5kaldte h\u00e5rde valutaer, typisk dollar, euro, britiske pund etc.).<\/p>\n

De samme overvejelser g\u00e6lder naturligvis for de investorer der \u00f8ger allokeringen til Emerging Markets obligationer. Her foretr\u00e6kker jeg i tiden portef\u00f8ljer, hvor der kun er en mindre andel af obligationer med lav kreditkvalitet (f.eks. CCC til C i Standard & Poor\u2019s termer). Men trods udsigten til stigende renter er jeg mere komfortabel med en l\u00e6ngere varighed i portef\u00f8ljen.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Blot skal man huske, at ASEAN-landene kun udg\u00f8r 3 pct. af den globale \u00f8konomi og derfor ikke et s\u00e6rligt stort alternativt, hvis man laver en mellem til stor \u00e6ndring i den samlede portef\u00f8lje. Jeg forventer derfor ogs\u00e5, at der allerede om 12 til 15 m\u00e5neder er en stor sandsynlighed for, at investorer samlet set har over-allokeret til ASEAN-landene, men den udfordring kommer til den tid.<\/p>\n

Det er samtidig ogs\u00e5 et eksempel p\u00e5, hvorfor globale investorer ikke bare reducerer deres allokering til amerikanske aktier med 25 pct., for man skal jo placere midlerne et sted.<\/p>\n

Ogs\u00e5 private investorer vil til n\u00e6ste \u00e5r s\u00f8ge videre, hvor et andet risikoelement man derfor skal v\u00e6re s\u00e6rdeles opm\u00e6rksom p\u00e5, er oms\u00e6tteligheden af investeringen. Al investeringsteori siger, at jo l\u00e6ngere investeringens horisont er, desto h\u00f8jere skal afkastet v\u00e6re, hvilket giver god mening. I den forbindelse bliver investorer i stigende grad m\u00f8dt med meget lange bindingsperioder, m\u00e5ske seks til syv \u00e5r. Umiddelbart kan et afkast virke attraktivt, men man skal virkelig overveje, hvad det betyder ikke at have adgang til sin likviditet i s\u00e5 lang en periode. For mange er dette en ny risikoovervejelse, og det kan v\u00e6re sv\u00e6rt at vurdere forskellige muligheder, hvis investor, som alternativ f.eks. kan ind- og udtr\u00e6de af sin investering hver tredje m\u00e5ned men med 1\u00bd procentpoint lavere afkast.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

De evigt stigende kurser de seneste 10 \u00e5r har resulteret i en slags risikom\u00e6ssig fartblindhed, hvor der har v\u00e6ret rigeligt med afkast og adgang til likviditet. Der er en risiko for, at dette har sl\u00f8vet risikoforst\u00e5elsen, specielt vedr\u00f8rende en investeringsportef\u00f8ljes oms\u00e6ttelighed, eller likviditet om man vil.<\/p>\n

Man oplever udviklingen mange steder i finansmarkederne, hvor f.eks. betingelserne i l\u00e5nedokumentationen ved udstedelse af erhvervsobligationer (det man kalder \u201dgovernance\u201d) er blevet udvandet kraftigt til ugunst for investorerne. I den sidste tid har de store kreditvurderingsbureauer Standard & Poor\u2019s samt Moody\u2019s udtrykt bekymring vedr\u00f8rende udstedelsen af visse kreditobligationer.<\/p>\n

Jeg betragter ogs\u00e5 denne bekymring som en effekt af den mulige tiltagende risikom\u00e6ssige \u201dfartblindhed\u201d. I jagten p\u00e5 n\u00e6ste \u00e5rs afkast skal man ikke v\u00e6re bange for de mange forskellige risici, men, som altid, s\u00e5 er den bedste investering den tid man bruger p\u00e5 at forst\u00e5 en investering.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Wall Street modtog beskeden om USAs n\u00e6ste monet\u00e6re stramning s\u00e6rdeles p\u00e6nt, men investorer kunne meget vel s\u00f8ge mod nye muligheder, og dermed nye risici.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8939,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[2],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\nAktieinvestorernes jagt p\u00e5 afkast - Lundgreens Investor Insights DK<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/aktieinvestorernes-jagt-pa-afkast\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Aktieinvestorernes jagt p\u00e5 afkast - Lundgreens Investor Insights DK\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Wall Street modtog beskeden om USAs n\u00e6ste monet\u00e6re stramning s\u00e6rdeles p\u00e6nt, men investorer kunne meget vel s\u00f8ge mod nye muligheder, og dermed nye risici.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/aktieinvestorernes-jagt-pa-afkast\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Lundgreens Investor Insights DK\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/lundgreenscapitaluk\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2021-11-10T15:11:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-02-16T07:01:23+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/1\/files\/sites\/4\/2022\/02\/030220221643877034.jpeg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"724\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"483\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@LundgreensCPTL\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@LundgreensCPTL\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Peter Lundgreen\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/#organization\",\"name\":\"Lundgreens Investor Insights DK\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/\",\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/lundgreenscapitaluk\/\",\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/peter-lundgreen-50411925\/\",\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/LundgreensCPTL\"],\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/#logo\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/1\/files\/sites\/4\/2021\/12\/eye-transparent.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/1\/files\/sites\/4\/2021\/12\/eye-transparent.png\",\"width\":200,\"height\":200,\"caption\":\"Lundgreens Investor Insights DK\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/#logo\"}},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/\",\"name\":\"Lundgreens Investor Insights DK\",\"description\":\"Professional Investment Advisory, Financial Services, and Global Market Insights\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/aktieinvestorernes-jagt-pa-afkast\/#primaryimage\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/1\/files\/sites\/4\/2022\/02\/030220221643877034.jpeg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/1\/files\/sites\/4\/2022\/02\/030220221643877034.jpeg\",\"width\":724,\"height\":483},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/aktieinvestorernes-jagt-pa-afkast\/#webpage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/aktieinvestorernes-jagt-pa-afkast\/\",\"name\":\"Aktieinvestorernes jagt p\\u00e5 afkast - 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