{"id":8743,"date":"2021-09-13T12:09:00","date_gmt":"2021-09-13T10:09:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/usas-okonomi-i-midten-af-2022\/"},"modified":"2022-02-03T09:30:19","modified_gmt":"2022-02-03T08:30:19","slug":"usas-okonomi-i-midten-af-2022","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/usas-okonomi-i-midten-af-2022\/","title":{"rendered":"USA\u2019s \u00f8konomi i midten af 2022"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Tiden n&aelig;rmer sig, hvor der skal ses ind i 2022 og det beh&oslash;ver ikke at blive helt s&aring; let denne gang.<\/p>\n<p>Gennem det sidste halve &aring;rs har jeg brugt meget mere tid p&aring; vurderinger af den overordnede retning i finansmarkederne, og de store &oslash;konomier, end hvad jeg gennemsnitligt bruger af tid p&aring; vores globale &rdquo;conviction model&rdquo;, specielt vedr. USA. Det tidsforbrug har sin forklaring, for gen&aring;bningen efter Covid-19 nedlukningen, og specielt at f&aring; verden og den globale &oslash;konomi tilbage p&aring; sporet, er en rejse der er noget mere uj&aelig;vn end oprindeligt forventet.<\/p>\n<p>De &aelig;ndringer der sker i det helt overordnede globale &oslash;konomiske billede, finder sted inden for s&aring; f&aring; m&aring;neder. Og &aelig;ndringerne repr&aelig;senterer meget store skift i forventninger, samt i data for f.eks. produktion og forbrug. Det er forst&aring;eligt, at efter en n&aelig;rmest global nedlukning, s&aring; skal alle forventninger og udviklinger i processen med gen&aring;bningen l&oslash;bende kalibreres, justeres etc. &Eacute;n &aring;rsag til mit eget ekstra tidsforbrug i den forbindelse er, at ogs&aring; i den amerikanske &oslash;konomi er udsvingene store, og udfordringen er, at USA&rsquo;s &oslash;konomi jo er verdens st&oslash;rste og mest betydningsfulde &oslash;konomi.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/lundgreenschinafund.dk\/\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"img-responsive\" style=\"margin-left: auto;margin-right: auto\" title=\"Lundgreens_ChinaFund_boerse_930x180_Preis.jpg\" src=\"https:\/\/app.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/public\/images\/blobid1637225244648.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"930\" height=\"180\" \/><\/a>Det er &aelig;ndringer i &oslash;konomien, som normalt ville tage v&aelig;sentligt l&aelig;ngere tid om at oms&aelig;ttes, men &aelig;ndringerne har knap en effekt p&aring; finansmarkederne. Blot &eacute;t af rigtigt mange eksempler ses i grafik et, der viser fremstillingssektorens vurdering i den region af USA, som den amerikanske centralbanks afdeling i Philadelphia er ansvarlig for. Umiddelbart ser udviklingen dramatisk ud, og ogs&aring; her har nedgangen i indekset v&aelig;ret st&oslash;rre end, hvad forventningen var p&aring; Wall Street. Udviklingen er dog ikke helt s&aring; dramatisk idet indekset ogs&aring; fort&aelig;ller, at der er fremgang p&aring; alle fronter, beretter virksomhederne, blot ikke s&aring; meget som &oslash;konomerne havde forventet.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"img-responsive\" style=\"margin-left: auto;margin-right: auto\" title=\"Dan - Gra 1.png\" src=\"https:\/\/app.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/public\/images\/blobid1631528373566.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"898\" height=\"450\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Udsigterne lyder n&aelig;sten som om man skal &aelig;ndre sin allokering til aktier til &rdquo;kraftig underv&aelig;gt&rdquo;, hvilket min holdning dog langt fra repr&aelig;senterer. Men mange investorer er blevet forv&aelig;nt med stigende kurser hver dag, og derfor kan modvind hurtigt blive betragtet som en forudsigelse af dommedag. Men det jeg har st&oslash;rst fokus p&aring; er, hvorledes en mindre positiv udvikling i USA&rsquo;s &oslash;konomi vil p&aring;virke amerikanske aktier, og dern&aelig;st det globale aktiemarked.<\/p>\n<p>Et s&aelig;rdeles st&aelig;rkt argument for evigt stigende kurser er naturligvis stigende overskud hos selskaberne, hvor grafik to netop er godt nyt for de investorer der fortsat argumenterer for et positivt amerikansk aktiemarked. Som n&aelig;vnt s&aring; er stigende overskud hos virksomhederne naturligvis en god garant mod et surt aktiemarked, men overskuddene skal have en grobund, hvor h&oslash;j makro&oslash;konomisk v&aelig;kst tydeligvis er et parameter, der allerede er indregnet i aktiekurserne. Omkring frygten for store kursfald, s&aring; er en god og simpel lakmustest, den manglende negative reaktion blandt investorer. Dermed mener jeg, at der allerede er kommet mange negative nyheder, som allerede burde have f&oslash;rt til et st&oslash;rre udsalg, hvis aktiemarkederne var nerv&oslash;se.<\/p>\n<p>Globalt er udviklingerne i de regionale aktiemarkeder noget anderledes positioneret end det evigt stigende amerikanske aktiemarked. Jeg vurderer f.eks. Kinas aktiemarked som n&aelig;rmest billigt, men nogle investorer er ikke komfortable med kinesiske aktier, og derfor er det ikke et alternativ for alle investorer. B&aring;de obligations- og aktiemarkederne i en r&aelig;kke Emerging Markets lande er jeg parat til at allokere ind i, n&aring;r timingen synes at passe. Jeg har umiddelbart sat n&aelig;ste tjek til engang i oktober, men humlen er, at her venter endnu en potentiel destination for allokeringer. Det europ&aelig;iske kontinent mener jeg fortsat vil udvise den svageste &oslash;konomiske v&aelig;kst, og aktiemarkedet vil her eventuelt skuffe de optimistiske investorer, men derimod ser jeg fortsat muligheder i det britiske aktiemarked.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"img-responsive\" style=\"margin-left: auto;margin-right: auto\" title=\"Dan - Gra 2.png\" src=\"https:\/\/app.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/public\/images\/blobid1631528399177.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"843\" height=\"398\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Omkring USA, s&aring; er mine overvejelser alts&aring; ikke om jeg dermed mener, at verden er ved at v&aelig;lte omkuld hvis USA oplever mere modvind. Men meget mere, hvorledes vil en &aelig;ndret retning i USA passe ind i den globale kontekst som jeg lige ganske kort har skitseret?<\/p>\n<p>Der vil komme mere makro&oslash;konomisk st&oslash;j fra USA resten af dette &aring;r, er min vurdering, men endnu mere st&oslash;j kan v&aelig;re p&aring; vej. I sidste uge meldte den amerikanske finansminister Janet Yellen ud, at statens pengekasse er ved at v&aelig;re tom. Den diskussion er efterh&aring;nden tilbagevendende, men ikke sund og bidrager med st&oslash;j. L&aelig;ngere frem i 2022 kommer det amerikanske midtvejsvalg, hvor udsigten lige nu er, at den tidligere Pr&aelig;sident Trump vil spille en meget aktiv rolle. I givet fald forventer jeg en valgkamp med en s&aelig;rdeles h&aring;rd tone, hvilket formentlig st&oslash;jer s&aring; meget, at det vil p&aring;virke finansmarkederne.<\/p>\n<p>Min konklusion p&aring; dette er, at luften for amerikanske aktier forts&aelig;tter med at blive tyndere, men det er endnu ikke tid at &aelig;ndre allokeringen. I bedste fald kommer tidspunktet for et eventuelt salg p&aring; samme tid, hvor Emerging Markets lande f.eks. igen er attraktive, s&aring;ledes det bliver en &aelig;ndring i portef&oslash;ljen. Hvis den timing bliver mere uheldig, s&aring; ender det med et regul&aelig;rt salg af amerikanske aktier, men lige nu er mit syn p&aring; det amerikanske blot steget til &rdquo;mere bekymret&rdquo;, prim&aelig;rt grundet mere st&oslash;j n&aring;r man ser ind i 2022.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Et stigende antal \u00f8konomiske n\u00f8gletal peger p\u00e5 mindre v\u00e6kst end forventet, ogs\u00e5 i USA, og udsigterne bliver da ogs\u00e5 mere usikre.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8935,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[2],"tags":[5],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v17.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>USA\u2019s \u00f8konomi i midten af 2022 - Lundgreens Investor Insights DK<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/usas-okonomi-i-midten-af-2022\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"USA\u2019s \u00f8konomi i midten af 2022 - 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