{"id":8700,"date":"2021-05-30T21:05:00","date_gmt":"2021-05-30T19:05:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/ecb-og-det-vaerste-resultat-af-alle\/"},"modified":"2022-02-16T08:22:13","modified_gmt":"2022-02-16T07:22:13","slug":"ecb-og-det-vaerste-resultat-af-alle","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/ecb-og-det-vaerste-resultat-af-alle\/","title":{"rendered":"ECB og det v\u00e6rste resultat af alle"},"content":{"rendered":"

Den 10. juni er der ordin\u00e6rt m\u00f8de i Styrelsesr\u00e5det hos Den Europ\u00e6iske Centralbank (ECB), og jeg er ikke i tvivl om, at dette m\u00f8de f\u00e5r s\u00e6rdeles stor fokus i finansmarkederne fra n\u00e6r og fjern. Beslutningen, der skal tr\u00e6ffes, indeholder et par udfordringer, specielt n\u00e5r man i forvejen er malet op i et hj\u00f8rne.<\/p>\n

Heller ikke ECB\u2019s pengepolitiske vogtere kan undg\u00e5 at skulle besk\u00e6ftige sig med den stigende inflation, for som grafik et er et eksempel p\u00e5, s\u00e5 er inflationen vendt tilbage for en stund. I USA har det v\u00e6ret us\u00e6dvanlig at betragte, hvor mange l\u00e6rde der har deltaget i inflationsdiskussionen og p\u00e5, hvor h\u00f8jt et niveau temaet vedblivende er blevet behandlet \u2013 det er ikke s\u00e5 ofte, at det sker. At udviklingen i inflationen er relevant, har v\u00e6ret tydelig gennem de sidste tre til fire m\u00e5neder, eller i det mindste har den stigende inflation v\u00e6ret hovedforklaringen p\u00e5 mange investorers sorger. I den diskussion har ECB indtil videre kunne holde sig ude af rampelyset, hvor den tydeligste reaktion kom f\u00f8rst p\u00e5 \u00e5ret da obligationsrenterne steg. Her meddelte ECB blot, at man \u00f8ger opk\u00f8bet af obligationer, men nu er den globale \u00f8konomi p\u00e5 vej fremad igen og inflationen er steget signifikant \u2013 hvad s\u00e5 ECB ?<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Umiddelbart bliver sp\u00f8rgsm\u00e5let den 10. juni om ECB skal v\u00e6lge at opk\u00f8be for mindre end de nuv\u00e6rende 80 milliarder EUR (600 milliarder kr.), som centralbanken, hver m\u00e5ned opk\u00f8ber obligationer for? Ser man p\u00e5 andre lande, s\u00e5 har flere centralbanker allerede reageret p\u00e5 vendingen i den globale \u00f8konomi. Det der sker, er at \u201dlette foden fra den monet\u00e6re speeder\u201d, som det bliver formuleret, alts\u00e5, at f.eks. st\u00f8tteopk\u00f8b af obligationer forts\u00e6tter, men i lavere tempo.<\/p>\n

Styrelsesr\u00e5det hos ECB kan let komme under stress i den nuv\u00e6rende situation af den simple grund, at \u00f8konomien i Eurozonen har v\u00e6ret under langvarigt pres. I min optik har de sydeurop\u00e6iske \u00f8konomier aldrig f\u00e5et rystet den globale finanskrise af sig, og erfaringen viser, at p\u00e5 et tidspunkt s\u00e5 kommer den n\u00e6ste \u00f8konomiske krise. S\u00e5 det er ikke en nem opgave for ECB, det at skulle drive pengepolitik i en \u00f8konomi der sakker l\u00e6ngere og l\u00e6ngere bagud i forhold til de to \u00f8konomiske supermagter, USA og Kina.<\/p>\n

Under Covid-19-pandemien i Kina lempede centralbanken pengepolitikken, dog ikke til det ekstreme. Det betyder, at det er udramatisk at stramme pengepolitikken til niveauet f\u00f8r krisen, og siden starten af \u200b\u200bdette \u00e5r har centralbanken taget de f\u00f8rste skridt mod normaliteten, men ret langsomt, og dette burde ikke forstyrre investorerne m\u00e6rkbart.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

I USA var den monet\u00e6re reaktion p\u00e5 Covid-19-krisen tv\u00e6rtimod meget signifikant og bem\u00e6rkelsesv\u00e6rdig hurtig. Siden da har den amerikanske centralbank (Fed) allerede \u00e5bent diskuteret, at en midlertidig inflation p\u00e5 tre pct. ikke vil g\u00f8re dem nerv\u00f8se. Fed var s\u00e5 sikker i den opfattelse, at de meget tidligt meddelte at holde renten p\u00e5 det nuv\u00e6rende niveau indtil udgangen af \u200b\u200b2022.<\/p>\n

Dette er tunge pengepolitiske beslutninger, men p\u00e5 trods af dette s\u00e5 har Fed en meget sund forst\u00e5else og respekt for finansmarkederne. Det har man f.eks. ogs\u00e5 kunne observere i l\u00f8bet af de sidste m\u00e5neder, mens den 10-\u00e5rige rente for amerikanske statsobligationer steg til 1,75 pct. Det har allerede betydet p\u00e6ne udsving p\u00e5 finansmarkederne, hvilket er naturligt, og de fleste investorer vil komme igennem s\u00e5dan en periode uden skrammer. Det v\u00e6sentlige i udviklingen i USA er dog den parallelle bev\u00e6gelse der har v\u00e6ret mellem den h\u00f8jere inflation og renterne i obligationsmarkedet.<\/p>\n

Den positive konsekvens er, at realrenten i USA fortsat er t\u00e6t p\u00e5 nul for f.eks. statsobligationer med 10-\u00e5rs l\u00f8betid, hvilket betyder, at en negativ realrente i det mindste ikke sk\u00e6vvrider priserne p\u00e5 finansielle aktiver til det yderste. De enorme m\u00e6ngder af likviditet, som der fortsat findes i det finansielle system i mange \u00f8konomier, presser allerede priserne p\u00e5 finansielle aktiver op til meget h\u00f8je niveauer, men negative realrenter f\u00f8rer til endnu mere gearing og spekulative k\u00f8b af alle slags aktiver.<\/p>\n

Renten p\u00e5 tyske 10-\u00e5rige statsobligationer er ganske rigtigt steget med 0,40 procentpoint i \u00e5r (grafik to), men den er stadig omkring minus 0,20 pct. mod den nuv\u00e6rende inflation p\u00e5 to pct., alts\u00e5 en negativ p\u00e5 realrente over to pct., hvilket er ganske meget. Inflationen k\u00f8ler formentlig af igen, men risikoen for en yderligere stigning er jo til stede. Alternativt kan det h\u00f8jere inflationsniveau forblive h\u00f8jt i l\u00e6ngere tid, hvilket ikke er umuligt.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Men tilbage til den 10. juni, hvor det efter min vurdering er sandsynligt, at flertallet af medlemmerne i Styrelsesr\u00e5det frygter at for\u00e5rsage h\u00f8jere renter p\u00e5 statsg\u00e6lden i Eurozonen. Derfor kan udgangen p\u00e5 m\u00f8det meget vel blive en fortsat maksimal st\u00f8tte til de halvsl\u00f8je sydeurop\u00e6iske \u00f8konomier – i stedet for at anmode regeringerne om at reformere deres \u00f8konomier. Resultatet er en risiko for en langvarig situation med m\u00e6rkbare negative realrenter, som igen kan udl\u00f8se endnu mere prisinflation p\u00e5 finansielle aktiver. S\u00e5dant et investeringsmilj\u00f8 kan v\u00e6re en udfordring for investorer, da prisfasts\u00e6ttelsen af \u200b\u200bfinansielle aktiver risikerer at blive sp\u00e6ndt til det yderste. Den bedste l\u00f8sning i den slags finansmarkeder er at reducere risici og positioner, hvilket er et andet udtryk for, at investorer forlader Eurozonen – det v\u00e6rste resultat af alle\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Inflationen er pt. stigende, finansmarkederne har allerede reageret, men ECB mangler fortsat at reagere og derfor bliver den 10. juni en s\u00e6rlig sp\u00e6ndende dag for investorer.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8926,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[2],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\nECB og det v\u00e6rste resultat af alle - Lundgreens Investor Insights DK<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/ecb-og-det-vaerste-resultat-af-alle\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ECB og det v\u00e6rste resultat af alle - Lundgreens Investor Insights DK\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Inflationen er pt. stigende, finansmarkederne har allerede reageret, men ECB mangler fortsat at reagere og derfor bliver den 10. juni en s\u00e6rlig sp\u00e6ndende dag for investorer.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/ecb-og-det-vaerste-resultat-af-alle\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Lundgreens Investor Insights DK\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/lundgreenscapitaluk\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2021-05-30T19:05:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-02-16T07:22:13+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/1\/files\/sites\/4\/2022\/02\/030220221643876983.jpeg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"734\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"475\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@LundgreensCPTL\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@LundgreensCPTL\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Peter Lundgreen\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/#organization\",\"name\":\"Lundgreens Investor Insights DK\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/\",\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/lundgreenscapitaluk\/\",\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/peter-lundgreen-50411925\/\",\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/LundgreensCPTL\"],\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/#logo\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/1\/files\/sites\/4\/2021\/12\/eye-transparent.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/1\/files\/sites\/4\/2021\/12\/eye-transparent.png\",\"width\":200,\"height\":200,\"caption\":\"Lundgreens Investor Insights DK\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/#logo\"}},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/\",\"name\":\"Lundgreens Investor Insights DK\",\"description\":\"Professional Investment Advisory, Financial Services, and Global Market Insights\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/ecb-og-det-vaerste-resultat-af-alle\/#primaryimage\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/1\/files\/sites\/4\/2022\/02\/030220221643876983.jpeg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/wp-content\/blogs.dir\/1\/files\/sites\/4\/2022\/02\/030220221643876983.jpeg\",\"width\":734,\"height\":475},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/ecb-og-det-vaerste-resultat-af-alle\/#webpage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.lundgreensinvestorinsights.com\/dk\/ecb-og-det-vaerste-resultat-af-alle\/\",\"name\":\"ECB og det v\\u00e6rste resultat af alle - 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